Re: What happens after Fidel, well, you know?

[PastorAsh]

Since there's no stuff against political conversations, I'd be curious to hear what people think will happen to Cuba after Castro dies. I'm far too new in cuban history to really have a good guess. Just know there was a lot of "Stuff" happening in Cuba before he came along and took over the reins.

[debmich]

I always had this private theory that Elian Gonzalez was being groomed for the position?
 I heard there was someone in line, but for some reason, the press and attention still paid to him, makes me think that Elian may be the man?
 
 JMO
 
 Debbie

[flopnfly]

Good question,
 I really know next to nothing about the politics of Cuba but I have a feeling that the Americans will be in there like a dirty shirt.  It will probably go back to the way it was in the 50's except that now all the Cubans are educated and will probably want to leave.

[Gambitt]

I really think Fidel's brother Raul, will take over once Fidel is gone.  I'm just not sure that he has the "charisma" that Fidel has, that brought the people to him in the first place.
 To me, I think Elian Gonzales, is more a sybol of victory, over the US, than he is an "heir apparent". Hopefully US colonialism, can be kept in check, and the people of Cuba, will have a chance at real "self-government".
 
 Of course, we'll just have to wait and see.

[Bulldog]

Well I'm not to sure what would happen..but we live in a changing world..but Cuba is one of the Countrys that has not been involved in this New World...
 
 Would be great that Cuba would jump into Democracy...
 
 But who the knows...and like the Pope..he may last for a long time..
 
 IMO
 Bulldog   :s:

[lnixon]

I really think Fidel's brother Raul, will take over once Fidel is gone. I'm just not sure that he has the "charisma" that Fidel has, that brought the people to him in the first place.

Raul is very much hated in Cuba. My Cuban friends all say that he is a crook or worse. He may take over but I do believe that the people will not be happy.    :mad:  
 
 Laurie

[PastorAsh]

My first thought was that perhaps Cuba may (let's hope not) degenerate into anarchy similar to the way Haiti has turned into. I'm presuming that's a worst case scenario, and a turn to real self government and democracy would be the ideal.

[lnixon]

PastorAsh
 History has shown that democracy does not come easily but as we know, well worth it. I too hope for that scenario although it may take some pain to achieve. Let's hope that it will be short term pain for long term gain.
 
 Laurie

[Steve_YYZ]

Well here's a few links for your reading pleasure (pain?)
 
 A report (157 pages) by the Rand Corporation on Cuba after Fidel.
 http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG111.pdf
 
 And if you reall feel like reading (458 pages) there is the May 2004 report prepard for Bush on the American plan for Cuba's future,  "Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba"
 http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/32334.pdf
 
 And while we can ask ourselves "Does anybody really care what the American policy is? we'd be silly to discount the American and Miami Cubans attitude and position vis-a-vie Cuba. They really do believe that they are simply going to walk in and whip the country into shape.
 
 From the Cuban's perspective, they believe that nothing will substantially change. That the revolution will sustain itself, and that Raul Castro will sucede Fidel. But as everybody knows, Raul just doesn't have the force of presence that Fidel does. And he's not much younger anyway so it would be a stopgap measure at best. It's really the military that will maintain control (or not) in Cuba after Fidel's demise.
 
 So depending on who you want to believe, it will indeed be interesting times ahead for Cuba.
 
 Steve
 
 p.s. I really do hope that by absolute chance, I'm actually IN Havana on the day Fidel dies. That would be neat to be there and see history being made.

[PastorAsh]

Originally posted by Steve_YYZ:
  p.s. I really do hope that by absolute chance, I'm actually IN Havana on the day Fidel dies. That would be neat to be there and see history being made.

That's funny, because before we left there was the major currency announcement of the change to CUC, then Fidel did a header at some meeting somewhere, hurting himself, so my thought was "Oh no, I don't want to be in Cuba when he goes." I feared disruption to flights, etc.. even if it would only be short term.

[Sunny]

Speaking only from my own experience and conversations with Cubans, a lot of them fear what will happen when Fidel dies.  They know that the Americans are just sitting there in pounce position waiting for the day to come but the Cubans don't want the Americans.  No offense to our neighbours south, but they don't always know what is best for the whole world.  I'm with Steve, I would love to be there that day. I wouldn't worry about the disruption of flights, etc. because it will all take care of itself evenutally and like Steve said you would be part of history.

[CriCri]

My husband thought I was crazy when I crossed my fingers throughout our entire two-week vacation that Castro wouln't bite the dust right then.  Chaos might be fun to some, but dodging bullets  while dragging small children is too scary for me  :eek:  
 
 Anyways, I remember reading in the papers that Castro's doctors give him 25 more years!!!!

[sunluvr]

Well, he certainly still personifies a strapping man despite his age....pillar-like if you will.  Take for example his reaction when he fell and broke his leg last year...he got right back up to asure the crowd he was fine.