Re: CUBA - Hurricane Dennis Reports.

[Steve_YYZ]

UPDATED WEDNESDAY AT 9 A.M. EST.
 
 Well it's only early July, but the first Tropical Depression with the potential to reach hurricane strength is headed towards Cuba.
 
 Tropical Storm Dennis is forecast to reach hurricane strength sometime Friday. Here is the strike probability chart from the National Hurricane Center followed by the most recent information.
 
 Fingers crossed folks.....
 
 Steve
 
   
 
 
 
 WTNT44 KNHC 060906
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
 DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
 AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS
 FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
 NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN
 FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND
 SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
 PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE
 GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121
 KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
 ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT
 CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
 SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
 
 DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14
 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2
 TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING
 THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE
 GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN
 EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INITIAL      06/0900Z 15.1N  70.3W    55 KT
  12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.1N  72.3W    60 KT
  24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N  75.0W    70 KT
  36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  77.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  80.0W   100 KT
  72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  83.5W   100 KT
  96HR VT     10/0600Z 26.5N  85.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     11/0600Z 30.0N  87.0W   100 KT

[bellagio]

Thanks Steve for the info - let's just hope it  fizzles out and doesn't make landfall anywhere.
 
 Keep us posted please.

[JohnnyCastaway]

looks like this one might be a big one.
 Here's this mornings report on it:
 
 000
 WTNT34 KNHC 060846
 TCPAT4
 BULLETIN
 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
 
 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
 HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
 ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI
 FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
 EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO
 DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
 
 INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
 THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
 INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
 BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
 LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
 275 MILES... 445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
 AND ABOUT  475 MILES... 765 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
 
 DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS
 TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY.
 
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100
 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
 TODAY.
 
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
 FROM THE CENTER.
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD
 CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...15.1 N... 70.3 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65
 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
 
 AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
 EDT.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
 
 $$

[bellagio]

Not looking too good at the moment, I must admit.   Thanks John for the update, please keep us posted.

[Steve_YYZ]

F.Y.I.
 
 The charts and graphs in the first posting of this thread are coded to automatically update to the most recent chart.
 Every time you open the thread it will update the charts.
 The text info I will keep updating manually.
 
 Steve

[millybess]

Being a non-techie, is there an update on this?
 
 Steve?  Johnny?
 
 Please.

[Steve_YYZ]

Latest reports from the National Hurricane Center have Dennis making landfall in Cuba withing the next 12 to 18 hours. At landfall, Dennis is also expected to have strengthened to a marginal Category 4 Hurricane. This is SERIOUS.
 
 From the charts, landfall of the center of the storm looks to be in the Trinidad/Cienfuegos/Santa Clara areas with a track across Cuba at an angle. The center of the storm looks to pass directly over Varadero.
 
 The eastern provinces and the Sierra Maestra mountains in Southeast Cuba are expected to receive 8 to 10 inches of rain, with spots in the mountains expected to reach 15 inches of rain. Flash flooding is expected.
 
 Let's all pray for our friends in Cuba.
 
 Steve

[millybess]

OMG Steve.  Thank you so very much for the update.

[JohnnyCastaway]

Heres the latest satellite image in infared,
   http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[millybess]

Thank you Johnny. Not looking good at all is it.  :(

[bellagio]

This is what I have just read on CNN website and it certainly does not look good news:
 
 As of 5 a.m. ET, the eye of the Category 4 hurricane was about 275 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba, and about 320 miles south-southeast of Key West, Florida. Dennis was moving northwest at about 16 mph, and its eye was expected to reach central Cuba later Friday.

[millybess]

This is from the CNN website as of 12 noon
 
 Nearing the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane, Dennis has maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (241 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
 
 At 11 a.m. ET, the hurricane was centered about 130 miles (209 kilometers) west of Camaguey, Cuba, and about 250 miles (405 kilometers) south-southeast of Key West.
 
 Dennis was moving northwest at about 15 mph (24 kph).

[JohnnyCastaway]

Latest from the Hurricane Tracking Center
 
 
 000
 WTNT64 KNHC 081910
 TCUAT4
 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005
 
 REPORTS FROM THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AND CIVIL DEFENSE
 THROUGH HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE A WIND GUST TO 149 MPH
 OCCURRED AT CIENFUEGOS CUBA AROUND 130 PM EDT. MORE THAN 85 PERCENT
 OF THE POWERLINES WERE DOWN AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED TO
 THE COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE.
 
 FORECASTER STEWART

[millybess]

From the Washington Post at 6:00 p.m.
 
 Hurricane Dennis Kills at Least 10 in Cuba
 
 By ANITA SNOW
 The Associated Press
 Friday, July 8, 2005; 5:58 PM
 
 
 HAVANA -- Hurricane Dennis lashed Cuba on its way to the Gulf of Mexico Friday, killing at least 10 people as it raked the Caribbean's largest island with torrential rains and 135 mph winds and forced thousands to flee the Florida Keys.
 
 Winds and heaving surf tossed a lifeguard tower into the sea and the spray towered over a razor-wire fence at the U.S. detention camp for terror suspects at Guantanamo Bay, on the island's eastern end.
 
 "It's arrived, with all its diabolical force," President Fidel Castro said of the Category 4 hurricane during an appearance on state television Friday afternoon. He said there were 10 deaths in southeastern Cuba _ eight in Granma province and two in Santiago.
 
 Another five were earlier reported killed in Haiti, bringing the known overall death toll for the Caribbean to 15.
 
 Top Cuban meteorologist Jose Ruberiea called Dennis an "extremely dangerous" storm

[millybess]

From the National Hurricane Centre:
 
 000
 WTNT34 KNHC 082247
 TCPAT4
 BULLETIN
 HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 7 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005
 
 ...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
 WESTERN CUBA...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
 HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
 CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
 TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO.  A
 HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
 PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
 AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
 FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
 REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
 OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
 GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
 PEARL RIVER.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
 FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
 GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
 FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE
 RIVER.
 
 A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
 TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
 WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
 AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
 WARNING AREA.  A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
 HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
 EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
 INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
 BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
 NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES
 ... 105 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 130 MILES...
 210 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
 DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. ON
 THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST
 OF CUBA THIS EVENING.
 
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...200
 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3
 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FURTHER WEAKENING
 IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA.  HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED
 TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF
 FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
 
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  65 MILES...100 KM...
 FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
 TO 160 MILES...260 KM.  CIENFUEGOS CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
 GUST OF 93 MPH.  WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS
 HOUR...WITH THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY
 REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH AT AN
 ELEVATION OF 160 FEET.
 
 THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
 
 DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS COULD
 PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 4
 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
 
 STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
 ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
 IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
 HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS.  A
 STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A
 STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
 FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
 ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
 SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY.
 
 REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 81.4 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
 
 AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
 HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
 COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
 
 FORECASTER BEVEN