Re: Hurricane Ernesto

[JohnnyCastaway]

this one could turn ugly....       :(  
 Ernesto is the 5th named storm this year
 
 -----------------
 
 
 000
 WTNT35 KNHC 270256
 TCPAT5
 BULLETIN
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
 ...ERNESTO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
 THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125
 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
 285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
 
 ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
 
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
 
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
 TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.
 
 RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA.  THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
 REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...72.7 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
 
 AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
 
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
 
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  <small>[ August 27, 2006, 08:05 AM: Message edited by: flopnfly ]</small>

[flopnfly]

 
 The Hurricane Hunters left Ernesto at 7:30pm EDT this evening, and found that the center had jumped about 50 miles east-northeast of the previous center. This sort of center reformation is common in strengthening tropical storms subject to significant wind shear, and we should not be surprised if another center shift occurs before the shear finally starts to decrease Sunday afternoon.
 
 The new center position is bad news for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which will now be subject to torrential flooding rains. Considerable loss of life may occur in Haiti, where deforestation will allow flood waters to rampage unchecked down the barren hillsides of the nation's rugged terrain. The new center position is also bad news for Cuba, whose entire length will now get a pounding from Ernesto.

[flopnfly]

000
 WTNT65 KNHC 270951
 TCUAT5
 HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
 
 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
 ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS
 MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
 HURRICANE SCALE.

[JohnnyCastaway]

000
 WTNT35 KNHC 271435
 TCPAT5
 BULLETIN
 HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
 
 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...
 
 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.
 
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
 THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
 185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
 
 ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.
 
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.
 
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
 TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.  TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
 
 RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
 
 REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...73.7 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
 
 AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
 
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
 
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[millybess]

I have heard on "The Moose" that the Hurricane has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm and I hope that's the case.  :confused:

[Bulldog]

I heard that too Millybess but this is what they say could happen next:
 
 MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said, but forecasters warned the storm could regain hurricane status as it moved toward Cuba.
 
 A hurricane watch was issued for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the area generally within 36 hours.
 
 Additional hurricane watches may be issued for portions of the Florida peninsula Sunday night, the hurricane center said in its 5 p.m. advisory.
 
 At 8 p.m., Ernesto's center was located just off Haiti's southwestern peninsula and about 140 miles south-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. Its top winds had dropped to 50 mph, and it was moving northwest at 7 mph.
 
 If it continues to follow that track, the storm will be near eastern Cuba's southern coast by Monday morning, the weather center said.
 
 Ernesto is forecast to strengthen as it moves away from Haiti and could regain hurricane status by the time it reaches Cuba, the weather center said.
 
 http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/27/ernesto/index.html

[Gambitt]

Got this from ABC News reports on Ernesto:
 
   

Facing its first big storm in decades without ailing leader Fidel Castro at the helm, Cuba had evacuated more than 600,000 people, many in buses and trucks. Cattle and crops were protected and domestic flights to eastern Cuba suspended.  

Even though he is All-Powerful, what exactly was Fidel supposed to do, about a hurricane?

[bellagio]

I have had a couple of texts from my friend in Banes today regarding weather conditions.
 
 The first sent at 11:50am Cuban time
 
 'Here it's raining a lot but is not too windy so don't worry we are ok.'
 
 The second one sent at 20:22 Cuban time:
 
 'It's not raining now. It looks like it's gonna get better.'
 
 Encouraging news I'm pleased to say.

[Bulldog]

 
 Tropical Storm Ernesto (40 mph) continues a west- northwest trek over eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall on the order of 4 to 8 inches is the main threat. The storm remains rather weak and has been over land for awhile over eastern Cuba.
 
 Ernesto may emerge over the warm waters of the Florida Straits by morning, and into south Florida by Tuesday night most likely as a stronger tropical storm. Look for increasing rain and stronger wind gusts over southern Florida by Tuesday afternoon.
 
 Hurricane watches extend northward along the east coast of Florida as far north as New Smyrna Beach. Hurricane watches are in effect along the Florida coast from Chokoloskee (on the southwest coast) to New Smyrna Beach, for the Keys, and for Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane watches are also posted for Grand Bahama and Andros Island. A tropical storm watch is in effect on the west coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to Englewood.
 
 In the western Pacific, after crossing the International Dateline from the central Pacific, Category Five Hurricane Ioke became Super Typhoon Ioke (160 mph). Ioke, maintaining its strength, is forecast to swirl very close to or over Wake Island on Wednesday evening (U. S. time).
 
 In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm John has formed about 315 miles SE of Acapulco, Mexico. John may become a hurricane by Tuesday night as it moves northwestward parallelling the west coast of Mexcio.