Tropical Storm Felix

[flopnfly]

Tropical Storm Felix forms in Atlantic near Caribbean

Tropical Storm Felix formed on Saturday in the Atlantic Ocean over the Windward Islands of the Caribbean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Computer models predicted the sixth named storm of the year in the Atlantic basin would head into the Caribbean Sea in the general direction of Mexico and Central America.

None of the models indicated the storm would reach the Gulf of Mexico, home to a third of U.S. domestic crude oil and 15 percent of natural gas production. But long-range forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

Energy markets have watched tropical storms and hurricanes closely since the devastating Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, when storms like Ivan, Katrina and Rita disrupted supplies.

Felix was located 30 miles northwest of Grenada and was moving west at about 18 miles per hour (30 kilometers per hour), the hurricane center said. It had sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph), forecasters said.

On its current track Felix was expected to move away from the southern Windward islands later in the morning and pass near the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao late on Saturday or early Sunday.

Tropical storm warnings, alerting residents to expect storm conditions within 24 hours, were issued for St Vincent and the Grenadines, and for Grenada.

The 2007 hurricane season, expected to be a busy one, is approaching its peak

The period during which most storms form runs from about August 20 to mid-October, with September 10 marking the top.

The most recent forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Hurricane Center, predicted the six-month season that began June 1 would produce 13 to 16 storms, of which seven to nine would become hurricanes.

Another prominent forecast from the Colorado State University team headed by pioneer William Gray said the season would see 15 storms, of which eight would become hurricanes.

Tropical weather systems are given names when sustained winds reach 39 miles (63 kph) and turn into hurricanes when those winds hit 74 mph (119 kph).

The only hurricane of the Atlantic season to date, Dean, turned into a monster Category 5 storm, the highest level on the five-stage Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

Dean hammered Martinique, St. Lucia and other islands in the Lesser Antilles chain, blasted Jamaica and then struck Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula before dissipating over the Mexican mainland.

It killed at least 27 people across the Caribbean and Mexico.

[JohnnyCastaway]

Looks like it's taking a low west-northwest track, skirting the coast of Venezuala, however the A B C Islands look like they might take a hit, as well as Honduras  and the southern part of Mexico as well.  Coz looks to be out of danger for now.  Felix is Catergory 2 now... 

[That Woman]

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- This year's second named hurricane, Felix, reached Category 2 strength Sunday as it churned in the Caribbean just north of the popular vacation destination islands of Bonair, Aruba and Curacao, the National Hurricane Center said.

 
Hurricane Felix moves westward into the Caribbean in this satellite image taken at 5:45 a.m. ET.

 1 of 2  With top winds of 100 mph, the center said "Felix could become a major hurricane during the next 24 hours."

In its 5 a.m. ET weather update, the weather center said Felix was about 400 miles (634 km) south-southeast of the Dominican Republic and about 85 miles (136 km) east-northeast of Aruba,

Felix was moving westward at about 18 mph and forecasters predicted that the storm's center would continue on this track, passing very near to the north of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao in the next few hours.  Felix's projected path »

The storm is expected to pass into the open waters of the Caribbean Sea later in the day and into the night.

In addition to the existing tropical storm warning for those islands, a hurricane watch was also put in effect for those islands, meaning that hurricane conditions, including winds above 74 mph, are expected within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning means including surface winds ranging from 39 mph to 73 mph -- are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Felix also is expected to dump 2 to 4 inches in that area.

The Jamaican government maintained a tropical storm watch -- meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours -- for the island nation.

A tropical wave had developed Saturday behind Felix, and could develop into a tropical depression later this weekend, CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras said.

The Jamaican government maintained a tropical storm watch -- meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours -- for the island nation.

The storm's approach had nervous residents in Aruba snapping up plywood and other supplies, The Associated Press reported.

"This kind of weather doesn't usually make it to Aruba, so people are definitely worried," store cashier Mark Werleman told the AP.

Earlier, Felix made its presence known in Grenada, damaging a concert venue and ripping roofs off at least two homes, according to the AP.

"It was really very, very scary. The wind was blowing so hard we thought our roof might come off," resident Jess Charles told the AP.

In the Pacific, the Mexican government canceled all warnings pertaining to Tropical Storm Henriette, as the storm, hovering just below hurricane status with winds of up to 70 mph, was moving away from Mexico's mainland.

As of 11 p.m. ET, the storm was 125 miles (200 kilometers) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and about 395 miles (640 kilometers) southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.


The NHC said that Henriette is expected to dump 2 to 4 inches of rain along Mexico's southwest coast, from Guerrero to Jalisco. Up to 6 inches of rain was possible in certain areas, forecasters said.

[JohnnyCastaway]

The latest on Felix, it's grown into a monster, but it looks like it will bypass Coz.  The A B C Islands got some winds and rain, but nothing as bad as it could have been. 


000
WTNT31 KNHC 031155
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
 
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...76.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 


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