The Castro Question

[Gambitt]

Please add your opinions... Unlike other sites, political discussion IS allowed here! 

[Harlequin]

From what we picked up on our last trip I think Raul will become president at some stage, it is what happens after him that concerns people

[flopnfly]

I think it will be Status Quo until Fidel dies.

They still need Fidel as the figure head right now, and by the time he dies everybody will be used to Raul, and the transition won't seem so bad.

Just my two cents.   

[Gambitt]

I voted for Status Quo as well, but now I'm not so sure:

Cuba's ailing President, Fidel Castro, has for the second time this month alluded publicly to the possibility of retiring from office.
In a letter read out to Cuba's National Assembly, he said in the past he had been a person who "clung" to power, but that life had changed his perspective.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7163672.stm

It almost seems to me, that Fidel might be trying to set up the transition to Raul full-time.  Maybe he will surrender actual power, and take a role as "President Emeritus", or soemthing like that?

[flopnfly]

So Castro hands over power to Raul.

How do you think the people will react? 

Right now (from what I've seen), it's a love / hate relationship with Castro, and I wonder if they will tolerate having another family member thrust upon them.

Of course, they "have" to accept because of the politics, but will there be another uprising shortly after, with the help of the Miami Cubans? 

None of us know for certain, but we can speculate.  After all, we're just tourists.   

[Bulldog]

I voted Raul will finally succeed Fidel as President

It's the only smart way IMHO for the country to proceed 

[Bulldog]

Castro defends naming brother Cuba's interim leader

HAVANA (AFP) — Cuba's ailing leader Fidel Castro has defended naming his brother Raul to stand in for him last year, saying no one in the communist country's national assembly saw it as nepotism.

In a letter to the assembly Friday, the 81-year-old strongman also again made an ambiguous suggestion that he could give up the presidency, saying that he had stopped clinging to power.

"There was a stage when I thought I knew what had to be done and I wanted the power to do it," he admitted, saying it was due to "an excess of youthfulness and deficit of conscience."

"What made me change? Life itself, tempered by the profound thought of (Jose) Marti and the classics of socialism," Castro said, in the letter read by assembly speaker Ricardo Alarcon.

In the letter Castro also referred to criticisms made by Washington that in choosing his brother Raul to steer the country he was being anti-democratic and reserving power to his family.

"In the proclamation signed on July 31, 2006, none of you saw it at all as an act of nepotism nor as a usurping of the functions of the assembly," he told the body.

The communist leader turned over his responsibilities to Defense Minister Raul Castro "temporarily" in July 2006 to recuperate from surgery. He has not been seen in public since, and there have been no clear reports on the state of his health.

The letter was the second time in a month that Castro, who has led Cuba since 1959, made an opaque reference to giving up power.

On December 17, Castro hinted in a letter read on television that he might step aside when he said that he would not cling to office or obstruct the rise of a new generation of leaders.

Meanwhile, Alarcon told the assembly Friday that Cuba's coming elections needed to be a "vigorous response" to the United States.

"The elections of January 20 must be a demonstration of patriotic unity, the country's vigorous response to those who tried to destroy us for half a century," he said, in a speech published Saturday in local media.

The January polls will choose the national assembly, with the number of candidates -- 614 -- equal to the number of seats to be filled.

Once the new assembly has been constituted, the deputies will elect the ruling Council of State, with 31 members, which will then choose the president.

Fidel Castro was renominated for the assembly on December 2, meaning he could resume the presidency.

But experts saw his December 17 statement as a suggestion that he might decline the leadership this time.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jAE10zGlNB1p9fAkB8Gi8yNoQ1tw

[Harlequin]

but will there be another uprising shortly after, with the help of the Miami Cubans? 

I think that this is the biggest fear, most Cubans would probably settle for a system similar to China (at least in the short term), a communist umbrella with a relaxing of the rules on capitalism, I was told in no uncertain terms what would happen if the Miami Cubans fulfilled their promise to reclaim what they consider to be their lost property

[mojitomiss_cuba]

I think that this is the biggest fear, most Cubans would probably settle for a system similar to China (at least in the short term), a communist umbrella with a relaxing of the rules on capitalism, I was told in no uncertain terms what would happen if the Miami Cubans fulfilled their promise to reclaim what they consider to be their lost property

That's what I consider to be the scary part of all of this. I just don't envision the Cubans rolling over and letting the ones who left, come back to reclaim everything they left behind, in a post-Castro time. And of course the Miami Cubans would have the USA backing them.
I hope that when (not if, as the when is inevitable) the transition happens, that the Cubans can slowly, but surely, forge a more democratic government, looking to other "friendly democratic nations" for support, assistance, guidance etc while still being able to maintain their autonomy (read "back of US, let us do this our way" here)