Author Topic: Re: Tropical Storm EMILY - Farther South Still (Read 3321 times)

Steve_YYZ · « **on:** July 12, 2005, 01:10:00 PM »

Well the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center continue to show strengthening of TS Emily. The forecast 72 hours out (3 days) still shows Emily to have reached Category 3 Hurricane strength.

Here's the auto-updating track chart, followed by the latest info. Emily is now tracking more southward of the track followed by Dennis. On it's present forecasted track, it's looks likely to miss Cuba entirely. The south coasts will just get brushed by the edges, though storm surge could still be a problem. Each day looks a little better for Cuba on this storm.

Fingers Crossed folks.

Steve
------------------------------------

Here's the latest info.

EDIT

000
WTNT45 KNHC 130848
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND NOT VERY
SYMMETRICAL. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW CLOUD LINES EVIDENT IN
IR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE
STORM'S ASYMMETRICAL APPEARENCE...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE AREA. PERHAPS THE EROSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOULD
GIVE US MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF EMILY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL
PREDICT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF EMILY AS IT MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN
PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IN 3-5 DAYS.

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/17. DYNAMICAL
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A LARGE
AREA OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 11.1N 56.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 11.6N 58.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 12.4N 61.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 64.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.3N 67.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 74.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 100 KT

flopnfly · « **Reply #1 on:** July 12, 2005, 01:52:00 PM »

The season is just beginning and it's not looking good. Hopefully we get them all early and then it fizzles out.

MCB · « **Reply #2 on:** July 12, 2005, 07:53:00 PM »

Just received an e-mail from our friends (Canadians living on a little sailboat in Varadero).
Dennis passed quite close last Friday at 10pm.
Water and power restored on Sunday night in Varadero.
Now they're trying to dry off.Hope Emily doesn't impact Cuba.They've had more than their share with Dennis and the season has only begun.

bellagio · « **Reply #3 on:** July 12, 2005, 08:01:00 PM »

Pleased your friends are OK MCB. Would not have thought that a sailboat would be the best place to be at the moment.

I trust they have friends they can shelter with if the winds get up to hurricance force.

Lets just hope and pray that Emily gives Cuba a wide berth.

MCB · « **Reply #4 on:** July 12, 2005, 09:02:00 PM »

Hello bellagio,
Our Canadian friends (whom I mentioned previously as having motor problems..no not repaired yet)..have very close Cuban friends in Varadero who can provide shelter.
They love Cuba and are determined to stick it out but alas if conditions get worse they have an option, unlike their Cuban friends, they can fly back to Canada when it's safe to do so.
Here's hoping all our Cuban and Canadian friends survive this hurricane season.

flopnfly · « **Reply #5 on:** July 15, 2005, 11:39:00 AM »

What is the latest on Emily?

JohnnyCastaway · « **Reply #6 on:** July 15, 2005, 12:05:00 PM »

Here's the latest from the NHC:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151435
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

....EMILY A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES...745 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY
NEAR JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

JohnnyCastaway · « **Reply #7 on:** July 15, 2005, 12:06:00 PM »

and there's another one lining up behind Emily about 1000 miles off the windward Islands....

Hollydog · « **Reply #8 on:** July 15, 2005, 02:11:00 PM »

Deep breath and crossed fingers and toes, everyone!

JohnnyCastaway · « **Reply #9 on:** July 15, 2005, 11:38:00 PM »

Update as of 11pm tonight:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

JohnnyCastaway · « **Reply #10 on:** July 16, 2005, 09:11:00 AM »

Emily is now off the southeastern tip of Jamaica as a Category 4 Hurricane, spare some good thoughts their way, hopefully it stays offshore and doesn't cause too much damage.

Here's a track from the Jamaica Gleaner.
http://www.go-jamaica.com/weather/index.php